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UMass poll: Harris pulls slightly ahead of Trump nationally

Vice President Kamala Harris is still riding a wave of momentum as she prepares to unveil her choice for running mate this week.

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally in Atlanta. John Bazemore/AP

By Ross Cristantiello

As Vice President Kamala Harris prepares to unveil her choice for running mate early this week, a new national poll from UMass Amherst found she has gained a three-point lead on former President Donald Trump. 

The poll, conducted from July 29 through Aug. 1, shows Harris with a 46 percent to 43 percent lead over Trump. The margin of error in the recent poll is 3.8 percent.

In January, a UMass poll showed Trump leading President Biden 43 percent to 39 percent. 

While the subject of Biden’s ouster and who should replace him at the top of the ticket consumed Democrats for weeks this summer, the choice to unite around Harris appears to be paying off so far. 

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“In the aftermath of Biden’s historic decision to forgo his re-election campaign, it seems as if Biden’s critics were indeed correct as his replacement, Vice President Kamala Harris, has emerged as the frontrunner in the race for the White House,” Tatishe Nteta, a political science professor at UMass Amherst and the director of the poll, said in a statement. 

Compared to the January poll, Harris has improved on Biden’s standing among Latino voters by 13 points, among independent voters by 17 points, and among voters between the ages of 18 and 29 by 14 percent. 

Harris’ ascent has increased enthusiasm throughout her party. The UMass poll found that 66 percent of Democrats are more enthusiastic about voting now that Harris will be taking on Trump. 

The poll does find that, among a wide variety of issues, Trump is seen as more reliable. Voters were asked which candidate they think would best handle 12 issues. Trump was favored in seven of them, including the economy, crime, and immigration. Harris was seen as the better candidate to handle four: climate change, reproductive rights, education, and healthcare. Respondents were evenly split between the two when asked about foreign policy. 

Who should Harris pick for her running mate?

Harris has reportedly narrowed down her considerations for who would become her vice presidential running mate to Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. Voters surveyed in the UMass poll were asked about who they would like to see her pick. About 52 percent said that they were unsure. The most popular option was Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly with 9 percent, while Shapiro garnered 8 percent of responses and Walz received just 4 percent. 

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Once she announces her decision, Harris is set to go on a five-day, seven-city blitz through battleground states. 

“Harris has improved upon Biden’s horserace standing in virtually every demographic subset, including a whopping 17% shift among independents and a notable 14 percentage point uptick among young voters,” Alexander Theodoridis, associate professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll said in a statement. “The three months between now and Election Day might as well be an eternity in political time and the last few weeks should remind us how quickly fortunes can change, but Kamala Harris and Democrats are riding a massive momentum shift right now.”